Higher cost of implementing Xpert(®) MTB/RIF in Ugandan peripheral settings: implications for cost-effectiveness.

SETTING: Initial cost-effectiveness evaluations of Xpert(®) MTB/RIF for tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis have not fully accounted for the realities of implementation in peripheral settings. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate costs and diagnostic outcomes of Xpert testing implemented at various health care levels in Uganda. DESIGN: We collected empirical cost data from five health centers utilizing Xpert for TB diagnosis, using an ingredients approach. We reviewed laboratory and patient records to assess outcomes at these sites and10 sites without Xpert. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness of Xpert testing; our primary outcome was the incremental cost of Xpert testing per newly detected TB case. RESULTS: The mean unit cost of an Xpert test was US$21 based on a mean monthly volume of 54 tests per site, although unit cost varied widely (US$16-58) and was primarily determined by testing volume. Total diagnostic costs were 2.4-fold higher in Xpert clinics than in non-Xpert clinics; however, Xpert only increased diagnoses by 12%. The diagnostic costs of Xpert averaged US$119 per newly detected TB case, but were as high as US$885 at the center with the lowest volume of tests. CONCLUSION: Xpert testing can detect TB cases at reasonable cost, but may double diagnostic budgets for relatively small gains, with cost-effectiveness deteriorating with lower testing volumes

Feasibility of a streamlined tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment initiation strategy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of a streamlined strategy for improving tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic evaluation and treatment initiation among patients with presumed TB. DESIGN: Single-arm interventional pilot study at five primary care health centers of a streamlined, SIngle-saMPLE (SIMPLE) TB diagnostic evaluation strategy: 1) examination of two smear results from a single spot sputum specimen using light-emitting diode fluorescence microscopy, and 2) daily transportation of smear-negative sputum samples to Xpert® MTB/RIF testing sites. RESULTS: Of 1212 adults who underwent sputum testing for TB, 99.6% had two smears examined from the spot sputum specimen. Sputum was transported for Xpert testing within 1 clinic day for 83% (907/1091) of the smear-negative patients. Of 157 (13%) patients with bacteriologically positive TB, 116 (74%) were identified using sputum smear microscopy and 41 (26%) using Xpert testing of smear-negative samples. Anti-tuberculosis treatment was initiated in 142 (90%) patients with bacteriologically positive TB, with a median time to treatment of 1 day for smear-positive patients and 6 days for smear-negative, Xpert-positive patients. CONCLUSION: The SIMPLE TB strategy led to successful incorporation of Xpert testing and rapid treatment initiation in the majority of patients with bacteriologically confirmed TB in a resource-limited setting

Development of a hydrologic model of Kagera river basin using remote sensing data

Model-based decision support tools are important for the management of natural resourcesspecially water resources. Specifically in developing countries, there is a lack of local data(ground collected data) and information to build, calibrate and validate the underlyinghydrological models. We should therefore use alternatives source of data that such asremote sensing data or global data.There are various archives of global datasets available online that could be used forhydrological modeling. They range from topographical data (SRTM) to soil data (FAO soilmaps) and land use (Global land use maps) as well as climatic data. The most interestingare climatic datasets, which include precipitation and temperature. Some data have beencollected by different satellites such as TRMM, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, others providestatistical data. An example is the CRU monthly datasets for rainfall, temperature andnumber of wet days per month that can produce daily data in as stochastic manner, usingthe weather generator DWGA.In this research, remote sensed data and global data have been used and evaluated todevelop a hydrological model for Kagera River basin. The Kagera catchment is located ineast-central Africa. This is a sub-catchment of the Nile River basin and it is distributed infour countries: Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The model was developed usingSoil and the Water Assessment Tool-SWAT, which is a continuous time and hydrologicalmodel used for river basin scale modeling. Satellite datasets and global datasets were usedto generate the inputs for simulating daily/monthly flows for the Kagera basin.All the precipitation datasets had almost the same temporal and spatial distribution;however the precipitation depths varied from one data set to another. The simulated flowsshowed clear differences of model response to those precipitation data sets. The SWATmodel performance was low, due to precipitation data quality, model resolution andvariability in topography, climate and landform of the study area

Routine versus clinically driven laboratory monitoring of HIV antiretroviral therapy in Africa (DART): a randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) is often managed without routine laboratory monitoring in Africa; however, the effect of this approach is unknown. This trial investigated whether routine toxicity and efficacy monitoring of HIV-infected patients receiving ART had an important long-term effect on clinical outcomes in Africa. METHODS: In this open, non-inferiority trial in three centres in Uganda and one in Zimbabwe, 3321 symptomatic, ART-naive, HIV-infected adults with CD4 counts less than 200 cells per microL starting ART were randomly assigned to laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM; n=1659) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM; n=1662) by a computer-generated list. Haematology, biochemistry, and CD4-cell counts were done every 12 weeks. In the LCM group, results were available to clinicians; in the CDM group, results (apart from CD4-cell count) could be requested if clinically indicated and grade 4 toxicities were available. Participants switched to second-line ART after new or recurrent WHO stage 4 events in both groups, or CD4 count less than 100 cells per microL (LCM only). Co-primary endpoints were new WHO stage 4 HIV events or death, and serious adverse events. Non-inferiority was defined as the upper 95% confidence limit for the hazard ratio (HR) for new WHO stage 4 events or death being no greater than 1.18. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN13968779. FINDINGS: Two participants assigned to CDM and three to LCM were excluded from analyses. 5-year survival was 87% (95% CI 85-88) in the CDM group and 90% (88-91) in the LCM group, and 122 (7%) and 112 (7%) participants, respectively, were lost to follow-up over median 4.9 years' follow-up. 459 (28%) participants receiving CDM versus 356 (21%) LCM had a new WHO stage 4 event or died (6.94 [95% CI 6.33-7.60] vs 5.24 [4.72-5.81] per 100 person-years; absolute difference 1.70 per 100 person-years [0.87-2.54]; HR 1.31 [1.14-1.51]; p=0.0001). Differences in disease progression occurred from the third year on ART, whereas higher rates of switch to second-line treatment occurred in LCM from the second year. 283 (17%) participants receiving CDM versus 260 (16%) LCM had a new serious adverse event (HR 1.12 [0.94-1.32]; p=0.19), with anaemia the most common (76 vs 61 cases). INTERPRETATION: ART can be delivered safely without routine laboratory monitoring for toxic effects, but differences in disease progression suggest a role for monitoring of CD4-cell count from the second year of ART to guide the switch to second-line treatment. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the Rockefeller Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Abbott Laboratories

The Impact of Different CD4 Cell-Count Monitoring and Switching Strategies on Mortality in HIV-Infected African Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: An Application of Dynamic Marginal Structural Models

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003-2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm(3) or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ≥100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks